Thermal suppression of gametogenesis can explain historical collapses in larval recruitment
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Projections for population viability under climate change are often made using estimates of thermal lethal thresholds. These estimates vary across life history stages and can be valuable for explaining or forecasting shifts in population viability. However, sublethal temperatures can also depress vital rates and shape fluctuations in the reproductive viability of populations. For example, heatwaves may suppress reproduction, leading to recruitment failure before lethal temperatures are reached. Despite a growing awareness of this issue, tying sublethal effects to observed recruitment failure remains a challenge especially in marine environments. We experimentally show that sublethal suppression of female gametogenesis by marine heatwaves can partially explain historical collapses in urchin recruitment. This response differed by sex but was similar between animals from warmer or cooler regions of their range. Overall, we show sublethal thermal sensitivities of reproduction can narrow the thermal envelope for population viability compared to predictions from lethal limits.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".