Cost-Effectiveness of Antiobesity Drugs for Adolescents With Severe Obesity
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Importance: Although the American Academy of Pediatrics has recommended treatment with antiobesity drugs for adolescents, the cost-effectiveness of antiobesity drugs for this population is still unknown. Objective: To quantify cost-effectiveness of different antiobesity drugs available for pediatric use. Design, Setting, and Participants: This economic evaluation used a Markov microsimulation model with health states defined by obesity levels. Effectiveness was measured by quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and costs were calculated from third-party payer perspective, estimated in 2023 US dollars over a 10-year horizon. Data were obtained from the published literature. Intervention: Antiobesity drugs orlistat, liraglutide, semaglutide, and phentermine-topiramate vs no treatment. Metformin hydrochloride and 2 types of bariatric surgical procedures (sleeve gastrectomy and gastric bypass) were considered in sensitivity analysis. Main Outcomes and Measures: Incremental cost-effectiveness ratio. Results: Among the 4 antiobesity drugs currently approved for pediatric use, phentermine-topiramate was the most cost-effective with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $93 620 per QALY relative to no treatment in this simulated cohort of 10 000 adolescents aged 12 to 17 years (mode, 15 years) with severe obesity (62% female). While semaglutide offered more QALYs than phentermine-topiramate, its higher cost resulted in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio ($1 079 480/QALY) that exceeded the commonly used willingness-to-pay threshold of $100 000 to $150 000/QALY. Orlistat and liraglutide cost more and were less effective than phentermine-topiramate and semaglutide, respectively. Sleeve gastrectomy and gastric bypass were more effective than phentermine-topiramate but were also more costly, rendering them not cost-effective compared with phentermine-topiramate at the willingness-to-pay threshold of $100 000 to $150 000/QALY. Conclusions and Relevance: In this economic evaluation of weight loss drugs for adolescents with severe obesity, we found phentermine-topiramate to be a cost-effective treatment at a willingness-to-pay threshold of $100 000 to $150 000/QALY. Further research is needed to determine long-term drug efficacy and how long adolescents continue treatment.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".