The causal link between cardiometabolic risk factors and gray matter atrophy: An exploratory study
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Although gray matter atrophy is commonly observed with aging, it is highly variable, even among healthy people of the same age. This raises the question of what other factors may contribute to gray matter atrophy. Previous studies have reported that risk factors for cardiometabolic diseases are associated with accelerated brain aging. However, these studies were primarily based on standard correlation analyses, which do not unveil a causal relationship. While randomized controlled trials are typically required to investigate true causality, in this work, we investigated an alternative method by exploring data-driven causal discovery and inference techniques on observational data. Accordingly, this feasibility study used clinical and quantified gray matter volume data from 22,793 subjects from the UK biobank cohort without any known neurological disease. Our method identified that age, sex, body mass index (BMI), body fat percentage (BFP), and smoking exhibit a causal relationship with gray matter volume. Interventions on the causal network revealed that higher BMI and BFP values significantly increased the chance of gray matter atrophy in males, whereas this was not the case in females.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.016 | 0.034 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.005 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".