Bibliographic record
Abstract
AbstractThe Green Party of Canada (GPC) did not elect new candidates in BC in the 2019 federal election even though climate change was an important issue to voters. This paper uses survey results from the 2019 Canadian Election Study, including a module designed by the author and interviews with GPC candidates. GPC’s third-party rival, the New Democratic Party (NDP), gave a false impression that GPC members were as socially and fiscally conservative as some members of the Conservative Party of Canada (CPC). The author’s module shows women are more fearful than men that women’s right to have an abortion could be challenged if party discipline were relaxed. Though it would be highly unlikely for a GPC candidate or MP to hold an anti-abortion position, the NDP planted seeds of doubt in the minds of young female voters who tended to be the ones more likely to consider voting Green.RésuméLe Parti vert du Canada (PVC) n’a pas élu de nouveaux candidats en Colombie Britannique à l’élection fédérale de 2019, même si le changement climatique était un enjeu majeur pour les électeurs. Ce document utilise les résultats du sondage de l’Étude électorale canadienne de 2019, incluant un module créé par l’autrice et des entrevues avec les candidats du PVC. Le Nouveau Parti démocratique (NPD), qui rivalise le PVC pour devenir le plus important des tiers partis à la Chambre des communes, a donné la fausse impression que les membres du PVC étaient aussi conservateurs, sur les plans sociaux et financiers, que certains membres du Parti Conservateur du Canada (PCC). Le module de l’autrice démontre que les femmes craignent plus que les hommes que le droit des femmes à l'avortement puisse être remis en cause si la discipline du parti était assouplie. Bien qu’il soit très peu probable qu’un candidat ou un député du PVC présente une position contre l'avortement, le NPD a semé des graines de doute dans l’esprit des jeunes électrices qui ont tendance à être celles qui sont le plus susceptibles à voter pour le Parti vert.Key Word: 2019 federal election, Green Party of Canada (GPC), Green Party of Canada election campaign in British Columbia (BC), Maurice Pinard’s theory on political openings for third partiesMots-clés : élections fédérales Canadiennes de 2019, la théorie de Maurice Pinard concernant la percée des tiers partis, campagne électorale du Parti verte de Canada (PVC) en Colombie-Britannique (CB)
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.004 | 0.012 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.006 | 0.003 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.003 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.012 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".