Holocene climate change shifted Southern Ocean biogeochemical cycling and predator trophic dynamics
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Studies of Antarctic paleo‐archives have produced conflicting hypotheses on the relative impact of long‐term climate change and historic exploitation of marine mammals on Southern Ocean krill predator foraging ecology. We disentangle these hypotheses using amino acid stable isotope analysis on a 7000‐yr Holocene archive of Adélie penguin (Pygoscelis adeliae) eggshells to differentiate variation in diet and trophic dynamics from baseline biogeochemical cycling as drivers of the rapid decline in krill predator bulk tissue δ15N values in recent centuries. Contrary to previous hypotheses suggesting solely trophic dynamic mechanisms as drivers of this decline, we identified an abrupt decline in source amino acid δ15N values, indicative of major changes in biogeochemical cycling at the base of the Southern Ocean food web that mirrored the decline in penguin bulk tissue δ15N values. These abrupt shifts in penguin δ15N values and associated biogeochemical cycling aligned with climatic events during the Little Ice Age that decreased surface δ15NNO3−, likely connected to a proposed increase in Ekman upwelling via a southward migration of the Westerlies. This baseline shift was in addition to a long‐term, gradual decline in penguin trophic position over the Holocene that began prior to both recent anthropogenic climate change and a proposed “krill‐surplus” following historic marine mammal exploitation in the 19th and 20th centuries. In resolving these outstanding hypotheses about drivers of Southern Ocean food web dynamics, this study emphasizes the fundamental importance of climate‐induced variability in biogeochemical cycling on ecological processes and improves the ability of paleo‐archives to inform the ecological consequences of future environmental change in the Southern Ocean.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".