Bibliographic record
Abstract
The Zero Emissions Commitment and climate stabilization Key points• Improved Earth system models now consider the complex interplay between the oceans and terrestrial biosphere and their key role of actively drawing down carbon from the atmosphere, showing the direct and immediate impact of our efforts to reduce carbon emissions.• Long-term warming will largely be determined by carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions but aerosols and short-lived, human-generated greenhouse gases such as methane must also be considered.• Caveats to the Zero Emissions Commitment (ZEC) and climate stabilization involve the precise magnitude of the carbon budgets that remain for avoiding critical warming thresholds, as well as processes such as the warming of the deep ocean and its consequences, including rising sea levels.• At this point, the obstacles to climate action are neither physical nor technological but political, which means they can be overcome with the right sense of urgency.What is most urgently required is a rapid phaseout of human-induced activities that produce carbon pollution.A recent article in The Hill insisted that "scientists failed for decades to communicate" (1) the threat of climate change.The scientific paper on which the article was reporting did not really say that-it was instead providing a more nuanced discussion of sea level rise "tail risk".But the irony here is that the opposite of what was asserted by the news article is arguably true.If anything, we scientists have failed to communicate the prospects for averting catastrophic warming.In the days when I was working on my PhD, in the early 1990s, we were taught that the warming of the planet would persist for decades even if we suddenly stopped burning fossil fuels and emitting carbon into the atmosphere.This is due to what is known as "thermal inertia"-the slow, sluggish response of the oceans.Climate models showed that surface warming would continue for 30 years or more, as the oceans slowly continue to warm, even after carbon pollution ceases.This so-called "committed warming" would seem to render Frontiers in Science frontiersin.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.008 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.005 | 0.007 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Research integrity | 0.003 | 0.005 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.018 | 0.006 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".