MétaCan
Menu
Back to cohort
Record W4388668467 · doi:10.3389/fsci.2023.1256273

Warming ends when carbon pollution stops

2023· article· en· W4388668467 on OpenAlexaff
Michael Mann

Bibliographic record

VenueFrontiers in Science · 2023
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldEconomics, Econometrics and Finance
TopicClimate Change Policy and Economics
Canadian institutionsUniversity of Calgary
Fundersnot available
KeywordsPollutionEnvironmental scienceCarbon fibersGlobal warmingClimate changeComputer scienceGeologyOceanographyEcologyBiologyAlgorithm

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

The Zero Emissions Commitment and climate stabilization Key points• Improved Earth system models now consider the complex interplay between the oceans and terrestrial biosphere and their key role of actively drawing down carbon from the atmosphere, showing the direct and immediate impact of our efforts to reduce carbon emissions.• Long-term warming will largely be determined by carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions but aerosols and short-lived, human-generated greenhouse gases such as methane must also be considered.• Caveats to the Zero Emissions Commitment (ZEC) and climate stabilization involve the precise magnitude of the carbon budgets that remain for avoiding critical warming thresholds, as well as processes such as the warming of the deep ocean and its consequences, including rising sea levels.• At this point, the obstacles to climate action are neither physical nor technological but political, which means they can be overcome with the right sense of urgency.What is most urgently required is a rapid phaseout of human-induced activities that produce carbon pollution.A recent article in The Hill insisted that "scientists failed for decades to communicate" (1) the threat of climate change.The scientific paper on which the article was reporting did not really say that-it was instead providing a more nuanced discussion of sea level rise "tail risk".But the irony here is that the opposite of what was asserted by the news article is arguably true.If anything, we scientists have failed to communicate the prospects for averting catastrophic warming.In the days when I was working on my PhD, in the early 1990s, we were taught that the warming of the planet would persist for decades even if we suddenly stopped burning fossil fuels and emitting carbon into the atmosphere.This is due to what is known as "thermal inertia"-the slow, sluggish response of the oceans.Climate models showed that surface warming would continue for 30 years or more, as the oceans slowly continue to warm, even after carbon pollution ceases.This so-called "committed warming" would seem to render Frontiers in Science frontiersin.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame machine prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.001
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.008
Version: metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061cValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Theoretical or conceptual · Consensus signal: none
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: none
Teacher disagreement score0.018
Threshold uncertainty score0.060

Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0010.008
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0010.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0010.000
Bibliometrics0.0010.001
Science and technology studies0.0030.002
Scholarly communication0.0050.007
Open science0.0010.003
Research integrity0.0030.005
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0180.006

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.077
GPT teacher head0.257
Teacher spread0.180 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designTheoretical or conceptual
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations2
Published2023
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

Explore more

Same venueFrontiers in ScienceSame topicClimate Change Policy and EconomicsFrench-language works237,207