2074. Longitudinal wastewater surveillance for endemic respiratory viruses and its correlation with clinically confirmed cases in Calgary, Canada
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Background Wastewater (WW)-based surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 is an established tool for COVID-19 pandemic monitoring, providing a leading indicator to cases and hospitalizations. However, its potential for monitoring endemic respiratory viruses has not been elucidated. We assessed the occurrence of Influenza A (IAV), Influenza B (IBV), and Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) RNA in WW treatment plants (WWTP) in Alberta's largest city and its correlation with clinical disease. Methods Twenty-four-hour composite WW samples were collected weekly from three WWTP in Calgary between Mar'22/Apr'23. WW was concentrated and RNA extracted using the 4S-Silica Column. Viral RNA was quantified using a commercial TaqMan assay (IAV, Assay ID Vi99990011 po, Applied Biosystems) and established RT-qPCR assays targeting: the hemagglutinin gene (IBV) and nucleocapsid gene (RSV). Flow rates at each WWTP were used to create a composite city-wide metric for each target. WW values were compared to clinical data reported by Alberta Health Services and reported as total cases and test positivity rates across the Calgary Zone (or entire Province if granular data was unavailable). Results IAV peaked in Calgary's WW between November-December 2022, IBV between February-April 2023 and RSV between November 2022-February 2023 (Figure 1,2,3). The composite-IAV signal positively correlated with weekly confirmed clinical cases within the Calgary Zone (Spearman's r= 0.83, p< 0.0001 for signals recorded the same week, and r= 0.85, p< 0.0001 for the prior week). The positive correlation existed regardless of influenza typed as H3N2, H1N1 or untyped. Furthermore, specimen test positivity rates across the entire province correlated with Calgary's WW measured IAV (Spearman's r= 0.88, p< 0.0001). The IBV WW signal correlated with clinical cases (Spearman's r= 0.63, p< 0.0001) and test positivity rates (Spearman's r= 0.74, p< 0.0001) across the entire province. Calgary's RSV WW correlated with clinical cases (Spearman's r= 0.56, p=0.001) and test positivity rates (Spearman's r= 0.50, p=0.007) across Alberta.Figure 1.Comparison of aggregate WW IAV in Calgary compared to locally confirmed clinical cases.Figure 2.Trend of aggregate WW IBV signal in Calgary compared to clinically confirmed cases.Figure 3.Trend of aggregate signal in Alberta for RSV compared to clinically confirmed cases over time measured. There is a peak in the RSV signal from November 2022 to February 2023, with a correlation to Alberta’s weekly confirmed clinical cases. Conclusion WW surveillance is an emerging technology enabling objective, unbiased and inclusive population-level monitoring of endemic respiratory viral infections. Disclosures All Authors: No reported disclosures
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".