MétaCan
Menu
Back to cohort

Portfolio Optimization Based on the LSTM Forecasting Model

2023· article· en· W4389200138 on OpenAlex

Why this work is in the frame

A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.

affAt least one author lists a Canadian institution in the pinned OpenAlex snapshot.

Bibliographic record

VenueAdvances in Economics Management and Political Sciences · 2023
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldDecision Sciences
TopicStock Market Forecasting Methods
Canadian institutionsCarleton University
Fundersnot available
KeywordsSharpe ratioPortfolioPortfolio optimizationVolatility (finance)Computer scienceEconometricsRate of return on a portfolioStock (firearms)Post-modern portfolio theoryBlack–Litterman modelStock marketModern portfolio theoryStock market indexEconomicsFinancial economicsReplicating portfolioEngineering

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

The prediction of stock performance is a crucial component in formulating investment portfolios and optimizing portfolios within the realm of quantitative trading. However, the inherent unpredictability and volatility of the stock market pose significant obstacles for investors in accurately predicting stock performance. To build an optimal portfolio, the LSTM model is selected as a forecasting technique. Subsequently, data sourced from Yahoo Finance is acquired for training and testing purposes. Based on the prediction data, the paper applies the maximum Sharpe ratio model and the minimum variance model to reach portfolio optimization. Finally, the paper uses the S&P 500 index as a standard to evaluate the constructed portfolio. The results indicate that the LSTM prediction model has effective functionality and exhibits superior performance in the domain of data forecasting. In addition, the minimum-variance optimization and the maximum Sharpe ratio models explore optimized return and minimized risk in portfolio construction. The constructed portfolio outperforms the S&P 500 in terms of risks and returns. Therefore, the results in the paper are good for investors to reduce risk and increase return in portfolio construction.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.007
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.002
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Simulation or modeling · Consensus signal: Simulation or modeling
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: none
Teacher disagreement score0.884
Threshold uncertainty score0.356

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0070.002
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0010.001
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.001
Open science0.0010.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0000.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.143
GPT teacher head0.389
Teacher spread0.246 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it