Bibliographic record
Abstract
Many experts predicted the renegotiated NAFTA would be worse for North American trade than the original agreement. This chapter examines the initial two years of USMCA’s implementation from a Canadian perspective, to consider whether those fears were warranted. Three trends are examined: (1) North American trade statistics during the transition from NAFTA to USMCA; (2) interpretation of new rules under USMCA in the auto and dairy sectors; and (3) initial disputes, and their significance. The chapter then discusses gaps and challenges that persist in trilateral trade between the three countries, and which fall outside the scope of USMCA. The chapter finds that, despite the great period of uncertainty in which USMCA came into force, early implementation has been surprisingly smooth for Canada. Following the initial shock of the global COVID-19 pandemic, Canadian goods trade with the U.S. and Mexico recovered quickly and continued to grow. However, services trade has lagged, largely due to pandemic border restrictions on travel. In addition, although early disputes were launched in predictable sectors, trade disputes during the first two years of USCMA were fewer than during the same implementation phase of NAFTA. Despite this, the chapter concludes that the greatest trade tensions between Canada and its North American partners have emerged in policy areas beyond the scope of USMCA, underscoring a need for greater collaboration and focus on North American regionalism moving forward.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".