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Record W4389675132 · doi:10.3390/risks11120217

Option Pricing and Portfolio Optimization under a Multi-Asset Jump-Diffusion Model with Systemic Risk

2023· article· en· W4389675132 on OpenAlexafffund
Roman N. Makarov

Bibliographic record

VenueRisks · 2023
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldEconomics, Econometrics and Finance
TopicStochastic processes and financial applications
Canadian institutionsWilfrid Laurier University
FundersNatural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada
KeywordsPortfolioEconometricsJump diffusionAsset (computer security)Computer scienceMathematicsEconomicsJumpFinancial economics

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

We explore a multi-asset jump-diffusion pricing model, combining a systemic risk asset with several conditionally independent ordinary assets. Our approach allows for analyzing and modeling a portfolio that integrates high-activity security, such as an exchange trading fund (ETF) tracking a major market index (e.g., S&P500), along with several low-activity securities infrequently traded on financial markets. The model retains tractability even as the number of securities increases. The proposed framework allows for constructing models with common and asset-specific jumps with normally or exponentially distributed sizes. One of the main features of the model is the possibility of estimating parameters for each asset price process individually. We present the conditional maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) method for fitting asset price processes to empirical data. For the case with common jumps only, we derive a closed-form solution to the conditional MLE method for ordinary assets that works even if the data are incomplete and asynchronous. Alternatively, to find risk-neutral parameters, the least-square method calibrates the model to option values. The number of parameters grows linearly in the number of assets compared to the quadratic growth through the correlation matrix, which is typical for many other multi-asset models. We delve into the properties of the proposed model, its parameter estimation using the MLE method and least-squares technique, the evaluation of VaR and CVaR metrics, the identification of optimal portfolios, and the pricing of European-style basket options. We propose a Laplace-transform-based approach to computing Value at Risk (VaR) and conditional VaR (also known as the expected shortfall) of portfolio returns. Additionally, European-style basket options written on the extreme and average stock prices or returns can be evaluated semi-analytically. For numerical demonstration, we examine a combination of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (as a systemic risk asset) with eight ordinary assets representing diverse industries. Using historical assets and options prices, we estimate the real-world and risk-neutral parameters of the model with common jumps, construct several optimal portfolios, and evaluate various basket options with the eight assets. The results affirm the robustness and efficiency of the estimation and evaluation methodologies. Computational results are compared with Monte Carlo estimates.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.000
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.000
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Simulation or modeling · Consensus signal: Simulation or modeling
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: none
Teacher disagreement score0.825
Threshold uncertainty score0.480

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.000
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0000.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0000.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.057
GPT teacher head0.259
Teacher spread0.202 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designSimulation or modeling
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations1
Published2023
Admission routes2
Has abstractyes

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