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Record W4389728957 · doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-3736323/v1

Prediction Performance Metrics Considering the Difficulty of Individual Cases

2023· preprint· en· W4389728957 on OpenAlex

Why this work is in the frame

A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.

affAt least one author lists a Canadian institution in the pinned OpenAlex snapshot.
fundA Canadian funder is recorded on the work.

Bibliographic record

VenueResearch Square · 2023
Typepreprint
Languageen
FieldComputer Science
TopicMachine Learning and Data Classification
Canadian institutionsUniversity of Calgary
FundersNatural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada
KeywordsComputer scienceMachine learningMetric (unit)Performance predictionPerformance metricArtificial intelligencePredictive modellingArtificial neural networkVariety (cybernetics)Data miningSimulationEngineering

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Abstract Prediction performance evaluation is an essential step in machine learning model development. Model performance is generally assessed based on the number of correct and incorrect predictions it makes. However, this evaluation metric has a limitation in that it treats all cases equally, regardless of their varying levels of prediction difficulty. In this paper, we propose novel prediction performance metrics considering the prediction difficulty. The novel performance metrics reward models for correct predictions on difficult cases and penalize them for incorrect predictions on easy cases. The prediction difficulty of individual cases is measured using three case difficulty calculation metrics developed by neural networks. We conducted experiments using a variety of datasets and seven machine learning models to compare prediction performance with and without considering the difficulty of individual cases. The experimental results demonstrate that our novel prediction performance metrics enhance the understanding of model performance from various aspects and provide a more detailed explanation of model performance than conventional performance metrics.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.004
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.003
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Observational · Consensus signal: none
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.485
Threshold uncertainty score0.690

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0040.003
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0010.001
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0020.004
Research integrity0.0000.002
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0000.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.274
GPT teacher head0.407
Teacher spread0.133 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it