Mortality in adolescents and young adults following a first presentation to the emergency department for alcohol
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND METHODS: We conducted a population-based, retrospective cohort study of first-time emergency department (ED) visits in adolescents and young adults (AYA) due to alcohol and compared mortality to AYA with nonalcohol ED visits between 2009 and 2015 using standardized all-cause mortality ratios (age, sex, income, and rurality). We described the cause of death for AYA and examined the association between clinical factors and mortality rates in the alcohol cohort using proportional hazard models. RESULTS: A total of 71,776 AYA had a first-time ED visit due to alcohol (56.1% male, mean age 20.7 years) between 2009 and 2015, representing 3.3% of the 2,166,838 AYA with an ED visit in this time period. At 1 year, there were 2396 deaths, 248 (10.3%) following an ED visit related to alcohol. First-time alcohol ED visits were associated with a threefold higher risk in mortality at 1 year (0.35% vs. 0.10%, adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 3.07, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.69-3.51). Mortality was associated with age 25-29 years (aHR 3.88, 95% CI 2.56-5.86), being male (aHR 1.98, 95% CI 1.49-2.62), having a history of mental health or substance use (aHR 3.22, 95% CI 1.64-6.32), cause of visit being withdrawal/dependence (aHR 2.81, 95% CI 1.96-4.02), and having recurrent ED visits (aHR 1.97, 95% CI 1.27-3.05). Trauma (42.7%), followed by poisonings from drugs other than opioids (38.3%), and alcohol (28.6%) were the most common contributing causes of death. CONCLUSION: Incident ED visits due to alcohol in AYA are associated with a high risk of 1-year mortality, especially in young adults, those with concurrent mental health or substance use disorders, and those with a more severe initial presentation. These findings may help inform the need and urgency for follow-up care in this population.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".