Climate-sensitive forecasts of marked short-term and long-term changes in the distributions or abundances of Northwestern boreal landbirds
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Climate change presents a major threat to biodiversity globally. Northern ecosystems, such as Canada's boreal forest, are predicted to experience particularly severe climate-induced changes. These changes may reduce the carrying capacity and habitat suitability of the boreal forest for many wildlife species. Boreal birds are susceptible to both direct and indirect effects of climate change, and several studies have predicted northward shifts in species distributions as temperatures become warmer. We forecasted spatially-explicit changes in the densities of 72 boreal landbird species using integrated climate change projections and a forest dynamics model in the Taiga Plains ecozone of the Northwest Territories (NT), Canada, over the 2011–2091 horizon. We 1) identified "winner," "loser," and "bellringer" species over short (2031) and long-term (2091) forecasts, 2) mapped landbird range and density changes under three contrasting Global Circulation Models (GCMs), and 3) quantify differences in landbird density predictions across a latitudinal gradient. Species that showed a moderate increase or decrease in their predicted abundance were considered "winners" and "losers," respectively. Species that showed a marked increase or decrease – a doubling or halving – of their predicted abundance in all three GCMs, were termed "bellringers". From 2011–2031, only 2/72 (2.8%) were considered winners, and 3/72 (4.2%) were losers. From 2011–2091, the abundance of more species was predicted to change: 26/72 (36.1%) were winners, and 10/72 species (13.9%) were losers. Four species were considered bellringers: Gray-cheeked Thrush, White-crowned Sparrow, Fox Sparrow, and American Tree Sparrow. Overall, projected range shifts were strongly oriented along a southeast-to-northwest axis. Shifts to the north and south were evenly distributed among all three GCMs. Our results suggest that future climate-mitigated distribution shifts and population declines of boreal landbirds will require targeted conservation actions. They also highlight the importance of the NT as a potential refugium for many boreal-breeding landbird species in Canada.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".