Abstract 12488: Oral Anticoagulation for New Onset Post-Operative Atrial Fibrillation After Combined Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting and Valve Surgery is Not Associated With Improved Outcomes
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Introduction: Post-operative atrial fibrillation (POAF) after cardiac surgery is common and is associated with increased risk of stroke and death. The incidence of POAF is highest among patients who undergo combined CABG and valve surgery, at 40-60%. The risks and benefits of oral anticoagulation (OAC) in this high-risk population are not well established. Research Question: Among patients with POAF after combined CABG and valve surgery, what is the association between OAC use and clinical outcomes? Methods: From a population-based registry in Ontario, Canada, we identified consecutive patients >65 years of age who developed POAF after combined CABG and left-sided, non-mechanical valve surgery from Oct/08-Mar/18. The exposure of interest was OAC prescription within 90 days after hospital discharge. Outcomes included death, cardiovascular death, stroke, MI, thromboembolism, and bleeding. Follow-up began at 90 days after discharge and continued for 24 months. Outcomes were analyzed using inverse probability of treatment weighting using the propensity score. Statistical measures of association were reported as hazard ratios with 95% confidence intervals. Results: Among 4,836 patients who had combined CABG/valve surgery, 1,939 (40.1%) developed POAF and these patients had a higher rate of death (HR 1.31, 95% CI 1.01-1.68 P=0.04). OAC was prescribed in 1,153 (59.5%) patients (86% warfarin and 14% DOAC). The use of OAC was not associated with a lower rate of death, stroke/MI/thromboembolism, or cardiovascular death but was associated with an increased rate of bleeding (HR 1.62, 95% CI 1.00-2.61, P=0.048). Conclusion: Among patients with POAF after combined CABG/valve surgery, use of warfarin or DOAC did not improve ischemic cardiovascular outcomes or survival and was associated with higher rates of bleeding. Randomized control trials are needed to define the risk and benefit of OAC use in this high-risk population. Until then, routine use of OAC is not recommended.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.004 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.005 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".