A Postpartum Breast Cancer Diagnosis Reduces Survival in Germline <i>BRCA</i> pathogenic variant Carriers
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract IMPORTANCE In young-onset breast cancer, a diagnosis within 5-10 years of childbirth associates with increased mortality. Women with germline BRCA1/2 pathogenic variants (PVs) are more likely to be diagnosed with breast cancer at younger ages, but the impact of childbirth on mortality is unknown. OBJECTIVE Determine whether time between recent childbirth and breast cancer diagnosis impacts mortality among young-onset breast cancer patients with germline BRCA1/2 PVs. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS This prospective cohort study includes 903 women with germline BRCA1/2 PVs diagnosed with stage I-III breast cancer at ≤45 years of age, between 1950-2021 in the UK. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES The primary outcome is all-cause mortality, censored at 20 years post-diagnosis. The primary exposure is time between most recent childbirth and breast cancer diagnosis, with recent childbirth defined as >0-<10 years post childbirth (n=419)], further delineated to >0-<5 years (n=228) and 5-<10 years (n=191). Mortality of nulliparous cases (n=224) was compared to the recent postpartum groups and the ≥10 years postpartum (n=260) group. Cox proportional hazards regression analyses were adjusted for patient age, tumor stage, further stratified by tumor estrogen receptor (ER) and BRCA gene status. RESULTS For all BRCA PV carriers, increased all-cause mortality was observed in women diagnosed >0-<10 years postpartum, compared to nulliparous and ≥10 years groups, demonstrating the transient duration of postpartum risk. Risk of mortality was greater for ER-positive cases in the >0-<5 group [HR=2.35 (95% CI, 1.02-5.42)] and ER-negative cases in the 5-<10 group [HR=3.12 (95% CI, 1.22-7.97)] compared to the nulliparous group. Delineated by BRCA1 or BRCA2 , mortality in the 5-<10 group was significantly increased, but only for BRCA1 carriers [HR=2.03 (95% CI, 1.15-3.58)]. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE Young-onset breast cancer with germline BRCA PVs confers increased risk for all-cause mortality if diagnosed within 10 years of childbirth, with risk highest for ER+ cases at >0-<5 years postpartum, and for ER-cases at 5-<10 years postpartum. BRCA1 carriers are at highest risk for poor prognosis when diagnosed at 5-10 years postpartum. No such associations were observed for BRCA2 carriers. These results should inform genetic counseling, prevention, and treatment strategies for BRCA PV carriers. Key Points Question Is a postpartum diagnosis an independent risk factor for mortality among young-onset breast cancer patients with germline BRCA1/2 PVs? Findings A diagnosis <10 years postpartum associates with higher risk of mortality compared to nulliparous and ≥10 years postpartum cases. Peak risk after childbirth varies for ER-positive (>0-<5 years) vs. ER-negative cases (5-<10 years). BRCA1 carriers had peak risk of mortality 5-10 years postpartum, with no associations observed for BRCA2 carriers. Meaning A breast cancer diagnosis within 10 years of childbirth independently associates with increased risk for mortality in patients with germline BRCA1/2 PVs, especially for carriers of BRCA1 PVs.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".