Saltwater Intrusion Into a Confined Island Aquifer Driven by Erosion, Changing Recharge, Sea‐Level Rise, and Coastal Flooding
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Aquifers on small islands are at risk of salinization due to low elevations and limited adaptive capacity, and present risks will be exacerbated by climate change. Most studies addressing small‐island saltwater intrusion (SWI) have focused on homogeneous sandy islands and one or two hydraulic disturbances. We herein investigate SWI dynamics in a layered, confined island aquifer in response to multiple environmental perturbations related to climate change, with two considered in tandem. Our field and modeling work is based on an island aquifer that provides the drinking water supply for an Indigenous community in Atlantic Canada. Observation well data and electrical resistivity profiles were used to calibrate a numerical model (HydroGeoSphere) of coupled groundwater flow and salt transport. The calibrated model was used to simulate the impacts of climate change including sea‐level rise (SLR), storm surge overtopping, changing aquifer recharge, and erosion. Simulated aquifer conditions were resilient to surges because the confining layer prevented deeper saltwater leaching. However, reduced recharge and erosion resulted in saltwater wedge migration of 170 and 110 m, respectively when considered individually, and up to 295 m (i.e., into the wellfield) when considered together. Despite the confining conditions, SLR resulted in wedge migration up to 55 m as the confining pressures were not sufficient to resist wedge movement. This is the first study to harness an integrated, surface‐subsurface hydrologic model to assess effects of coastal erosion and other hydroclimatic stressors on island aquifers, highlighting that climate change can drive extensive salinization of critical groundwater resources.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.004 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".