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Record W4390734723 · doi:10.1101/2024.01.05.574233

Wild bird mass mortalities in eastern Canada associated with the Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza A(H5N1) virus, 2022

2024· preprint· en· W4390734723 on OpenAlexaffabout
Stephanie Avery‐Gomm, Tatsiana Barychka, Matthew D. English, Robert A. Ronconi, Sabina I. Wilhelm, Jean‐François Rail, Tabatha L. Cormier, Matthieu Beaumont, Campbell Bowser, Tori V. Burt, Sydney M. Collins, Steven Duffy, Jolene A. Giacinti, Scott G. Gilliland, Jean‐François Giroux, Carina Gjerdrum, Magella Guillemette, Kathryn E. Hargan, Megan Jones, Andrew C. Kennedy, Liam Kusalik, Stéphane Lair, Andrew S. Lang, Raphaël A. Lavoie, Christine Lepage, Gretchen McPhail, William A. Montevecchi, Glen J. Parsons, Jennifer F. Provencher, Ishraq Rahman, Gregory J. Robertson, Yannick Seyer, Catherine Soos, Christopher R. E. Ward, Regina Wells, Jordan Wight

Bibliographic record

VenuebioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory) · 2024
Typepreprint
Languageen
FieldMedicine
TopicInfluenza Virus Research Studies
Canadian institutionsUniversité de MontréalCégep de Rivière-du-LoupUniversité du Québec à MontréalMemorial University of NewfoundlandUniversity of Prince Edward IslandUniversité du Québec à RimouskiEnvironment and Climate Change Canada
Fundersnot available
KeywordsInfluenza A virus subtype H5N1Uria aalgeWaterfowlPopulationGeographyOutbreakWildlifeFisheryBiologyDemographySocioeconomicsEcologySeabirdVirusPredation

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Abstract In 2022, a severe outbreak of clade 2.3.4.4b Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) H5N1 virus resulted in unprecedented mortality among wild birds in eastern Canada. Tens of thousands of birds were reported sick or dead, prompting a comprehensive assessment of mortality spanning the breeding season between April 1 and September 30, 2022. Mortality reports were collated from federal, Indigenous, provincial, and municipal agencies, the Canadian Wildlife Health Cooperative, non-governmental organizations, universities, and citizen science platforms. A scenario analysis was conducted to refine mortality estimates, accounting for potential double counts from multiple sources under a range of spatial and temporal overlap. Correcting for double counting, an estimated 40,966 wild birds were reported sick or dead in eastern Canada during the spring and summer of 2022. Seabirds and sea ducks, long-lived species that are slow to recover from perturbations, accounted for 98.7% of reported mortalities. Mortalities were greatest among Northern Gannets (Morus bassanus ; 26,193), Common Murres ( Uria aalge ; 8,133), and American Common Eiders ( Somateria mollissima dresseri; 1,945), however, these figures underestimate total mortality as they exclude unreported deaths on land and at sea. In addition to presenting mortality estimates, we compare mortalities with known population sizes and trends and make an initial assessment of whether population-level impacts are possible for the Northern Gannet, a species that has suffered significant global mortality, and two harvested species, Common Murre and American Common Eider, to support management decisions. We hypothesize that population-level impacts in eastern Canada are possible for Northern Gannets and American Common Eiders but are unlikely for Common Murres. This study underscores the urgent need for further research to understand the broader ecological ramifications of the HPAI outbreak on wild bird populations.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame machine prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.000
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.001
Version: metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061cValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Observational · Consensus signal: Observational
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.026
Threshold uncertainty score0.072

Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0000.001
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0010.001
Science and technology studies0.0020.000
Scholarly communication0.0010.000
Open science0.0010.001
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0010.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.030
GPT teacher head0.267
Teacher spread0.238 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designObservational
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations11
Published2024
Admission routes2
Has abstractyes

Explore more

Same venuebioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory)→Same topicInfluenza Virus Research Studies→French-language works237,207→