Pathogen presence, prevalence, and diversity in Ixodes scapularis and mammal hosts at their expanding northern range limits
Bibliographic record
Abstract
With climate and land use changes, tick-borne pathogens are expected to become more widely distributed in Canada. Pathogen spread and transmission in this region is modulated by changes in the abundance and distribution of tick and host populations. Here, we assessed the relationships between pathogens detected in Ixodes scapularis and mammal hosts at sites of different levels of disease risk using data from summer field surveys in Ontario and Quebec, Canada. Generalized linear mixed models and ordinal logistic regressions were used to determine the influence of the abundance of I. scapularis and the abundance and diversity of mammal hosts on pathogen presence, prevalence, and diversity. We detected three pathogen species in I. scapularis and small mammals using nested PCRs, namely Borrelia burgdorferi sensu stricto, Babesia odocoilei , and Babesia microti . Depending on the analyzed pathogen, local infection prevalence ranged from 0% to 25.4% in questing ticks and from 0% to 16.7% in small mammal hosts. We detected B. odocoilei in localities beyond its known range limits in southeastern Quebec suggesting ongoing range expansion of this pathogen. Neither the abundance of I. scapularis nor the abundance and diversity of mammal hosts altered local pathogen presence and prevalence, contrary to expectations. However, mammal species richness was a key predictor of the number of pathogen species. Our study demonstrates the need for future surveillance efforts that test questing and feeding I. scapularis of all life stages, as well as their hosts to better determine the spread, transmission, and co-occurrence of tick-borne pathogens in Canada.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".