Systematic review using a spiral approach with machine learning
Bibliographic record
Abstract
With the accelerating growth of the academic corpus, doubling every 9 years, machine learning is a promising avenue to make systematic review manageable. Though several notable advancements have already been made, the incorporation of machine learning is less than optimal, still relying on a sequential, staged process designed to accommodate a purely human approach, exemplified by PRISMA. Here, we test a spiral, alternating or oscillating approach, where full-text screening is done intermittently with title/abstract screening, which we examine in three datasets by simulation under 360 conditions comprised of different algorithmic classifiers, feature extractions, prioritization rules, data types, and information provided (e.g., title/abstract, full-text included). Overwhelmingly, the results favored a spiral processing approach with logistic regression, TF-IDF for vectorization, and maximum probability for prioritization. Results demonstrate up to a 90% improvement over traditional machine learning methodologies, especially for databases with fewer eligible articles. With these advancements, the screening component of most systematic reviews should remain functionally achievable for another one to two decades.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.440 | 0.153 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.004 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.149 | 0.030 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.011 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.004 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.009 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.053 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; both teacher heads agree on what is shown here.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".