Modelling electrified railway signalling misoperations during extreme space weather events in the UK
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Space weather has the potential to impact ground-based technologies on Earth, affecting many systems including railway signalling. This study uses a recently developed model to analyse the impact of geomagnetically induced currents on railway signalling systems in the United Kingdom during the March 1989 and October 2003 geomagnetic storms. The March 1989 storm is also scaled to estimate a 1-in-100 year and a 1-in-200 year extreme storm. Both the Glasgow to Edinburgh line, and the Preston to Lancaster section of the West Coast Main Line are modelled. No "right side" failures (when unoccupied sections appear occupied) are suggested to have occurred during either storm, and the total number of potential "wrong side" failures (when occupied sections appear clear) is low. However, the modelling indicates "right side" and "wrong side" failures are possible on both routes during the 1-in-100 year and 1-in-200 year extreme storms, with the Glasgow to Edinburgh line showing more total misoperations than the Preston to Lancaster section of the West Coast Main Line. A 1-in-100 year or 1-in-200 year extreme storm would result in misoperations over an extended period of time, with most occurring over a duration of 2-3 h either side of the peak of the storm.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".