Cystatin C or creatinine for pre-operative assessment of kidney function and risk of post-operative acute kidney injury: a secondary analysis of the METS cohort study
Bibliographic record
Abstract
ABSTRACT Background Post-operative acute kidney injury (PO-AKI) is a common surgical complication consistently associated with subsequent morbidity and mortality. Prior kidney dysfunction is a major risk factor for PO-AKI, however it is unclear whether serum creatinine, the conventional kidney function marker, is optimal in this population. Serum cystatin C is a kidney function marker less affected by body composition and might provide better prognostic information in surgical patients. Methods This was a pre-defined, secondary analysis of a multi-centre prospective cohort study of pre-operative functional capacity. Participants were aged ≥40 years, undergoing non-cardiac surgery. We assessed the association of pre-operative estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) calculated using both serum creatinine and serum cystatin C with PO-AKI within 3 days after surgery, defined by KDIGO creatinine changes. The adjusted analysis accounted for established AKI risk factors. Results A total of 1347 participants were included (median age 65 years, interquartile range 56–71), of whom 775 (58%) were male. A total of 82/1347 (6%) patients developed PO-AKI. These patients were older, had higher prevalence of cardiovascular disease and related medication, were more likely to have intra-abdominal procedures, had more intraoperative transfusion, and were more likely to be dead at 1 year after surgery 6/82 (7.3%) vs 33/1265 (2.7%) (P = .038). Pre-operative eGFR was lower in AKI than non-AKI patients using both creatinine and cystatin C. When both measurements were considered in a single age- and sex-adjusted model, eGFR-Cysc was strongly associated with PO-AKI, with increasing risk of AKI as eGFR-Cysc decreased below 90, while eGFR-Cr was no longer significantly associated. Conclusions Data from over 1000 prospectively recruited surgical patients confirms pre-operative kidney function as major risk factor for PO-AKI. Of the kidney function markers available, compared with creatinine, cystatin C had greater strength of association with PO-AKI and merits further assessment in pre-operative assessment of surgical risk.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.007 | 0.028 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".