Development of an improved risk stratification scheme for stage II and III colorectal cancers through incorporation of the digital pathology biomarker QuantCRC.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
162 Background: There is a need to improve current risk stratification of stage II and III colorectal cancer (CRC) to better inform risk of recurrence and guide adjuvant chemotherapy. The purpose of this study is to examine whether integration of QuantCRC, an AI-based digital pathology biomarker utilizing hematoxylin and eosin-stained slides, provides improved risk stratification over current American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO) guidelines. Methods: ASCO and QuantCRC-integrated risk schemes were applied to an observational cohort of 1,068 stage II and III CRCs. The stage II integrated scheme utilizes pT3 vs. pT4 and QuantCRC-derived risk groups. The stage III integrated scheme utilizes pT1-3 vs. pT4, pN1 vs. pN2, and QuantCRC-derived risk groups. Performance metrics included log-rank test, hazard ratios and Somers’ Dxy rank correlation. Results: Integration of QuantCRC provides improved risk stratification compared to the ASCO scheme for stage II and III CRC. The QuantCRC-integrated scheme placed more stage II tumors in the low-risk group compared to the ASCO scheme (69.3% vs. 60.4%) without decreased 3-year RFS. The QuantCRC-integrated scheme provided larger hazard ratios (HR) for both intermediate-risk (3.04, 95%CI 1.81-5.10, P=2.8x10 -5 ) and high-risk (4.62, 95%CI 2.02-10.61, P=0.0003) groups compared to ASCO intermediate-risk (2.09, 95%CI 1.21-3.63, P=0.008) and high-risk (3.08, 95%CI 1.57-6.01, P=0.001) groups. The QuantCRC-integrated scheme for stage III tumors identified a small group of 80/518 (15.4%) CRCs at very high risk of recurrence with HR of 4.08 (95%CI 2.68-6.23, P=6.5x10 -11 ) compared to a HR of 2.42 (95%CI 1.72-3.38, P=3.1x10 -7 ) for 228/518 (44.0%) high-risk CRCs in the ASCO scheme. QuantCRC-integrated risk groups remained prognostic in stage III CRCs when stratified by presence or absence of any adjuvant chemotherapy. No difference in RFS were seen in QuantCRC-integrated low-risk and intermediate-risk stage III CRCs stratified by 3 vs. 6-months of oxaliplatin-based adjuvant chemotherapy suggesting that these two groups can be treated with 3-months of adjuvant therapy. Conclusions: Incorporation of QuantCRC into risk stratification provides a powerful predictor of RFS that has potential to guide subsequent treatment and surveillance.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".