Consistent but Delayed Timing of Precipitation Affects Community Composition of Prairie Pothole Birds and Aquatic Macroinvertebrates, but not Wetland Plants
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract The hydroperiod (i.e., the length of time ponded water is present) of prairie potholes largely depend on cumulative precipitation amounts, which are sensitive to climate change. Snowmelt runoff is the largest contributor to ponded water amounts. Thus, a change in precipitation timing – where a decline in winter/spring amounts is matched with an equivalent increase in summer amounts – can affect wetland hydroperiod. Between 2014 and 2015, cumulative precipitation amounts were near equivalent; however, precipitation amounts in 2015 were higher in the summer and lower in early spring when compared to climate normals. We sought to understand whether this change in precipitation timing could result in 1) a decline in wetland hydroperiod and 2) a change in the community composition of birds, aquatic macroinvertebrates and plants. Our findings suggest a change in precipitation timing in 2015 could be tied to a decline in wetland hydroperiod. Additionally, bird and aquatic macroinvertebrate community composition changed between years. For birds, wetlands were dominated by wetland-dependent bird taxa in 2014, but by upland birds in 2015. In 2015, wetlands supported a nested subset of the macroinvertebrates present in 2014, and these were families that were either able to reproduce outside wetlands or could suspend metabolic activities under drought conditions. There was no change in the community composition of plants, and we hypothesize that this may be explained by their ability to utilize rhizomes from the previous year to survive this one-year change in their growing season.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".