P659 Prognostic markers in Treat-to-Target for Crohn’s Disease- an Asian institution’s experience
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Background Endoscopic healing (EH) is a long-term treatment target in the Treat-to-Target approach for Crohn’s Disease (CD). However, not all patients with CD will achieve this treatment target due to a combination of factors. This study aims to evaluate the proportions of patients with CD who achieve EH at 24 months from diagnosis. Secondary aims include proportion of patients who achieve corticosteroid free clinical remission (CSFR), biomarker (BM) normalization and predictors of failure to achieve EH. Methods This is a retrospective study of all patients with Crohn’s disease seen at a tertiary hospital in Singapore from January 2010 to December 2021. Patients with a confirmed diagnosis of CD based on endoscopic, clinical and histological findings were identified from existing IBD registry. Those with a follow-up period of less than 12 months, no repeat endoscopy and missing data were excluded from analysis. We collected data on baseline demographics, disease characteristics and treatment received. Treatment targets were assessed in terms of CSFR, biomarkers normalization, EH and transmural healing (when available). We defined these targets as outlined in the selecting therapeutic Selecting Therapeutic Targets in Inflammatory Bowel Disease (STRIDE) II initiative. Statistical analysis was performed in Python using statsmodels 0.14.0. Results We identified a total of 86 CD patients. After excluding 29 patients, 59 patients were included in the final analysis.Mean age at diagnosis was 33 years old, and 69.5% were males. Table 1 demonstrates the baseline demographics and disease characteristics of all patients. The median follow-up period was 101 months. Out of 59 patients, 88% (n=52) and 80% (n=47) achieved CSFR and biomarker normalization respectively at 12 months. At 24 months of follow up, EH was achieved in 54% (n =32) of all patients. Of those who achieved EH, 22 had repeat imaging and transmural healing was documented in 14 patients. On multivariate logistic regression, Montreal B3 (penetrating type) disease was predictive of failure to achieve EH (OR 9.8, p= 0.036). Use of biologics also showed a trend for failing to achieve EH though this was not statistically significant (OR 3.5, p = 0.075). Conclusion A vast majority of CD patients were able to achieve corticosteroid free clinical remission and biomarker normalization. Penetrating disease was predictive of failure to achieve EH at 24 months. This study provides additional evidence in determining treatment targets for CD patients based on their disease phenotypes. These findings could be further validated in larger cohort, prospective studies.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".