P306 Rectal bleeding and stool frequency are strong predictors of endoscopic and histologic activity in ulcerative colitis patients, a prospective cohort study
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Background Rectal bleeding and increased stool frequency are the most common symptoms patients with UC report, and they are key components in most of disease activity scores. It is unclear whether the severity of patient reported outcomes (rectal bleeding or diarrhea) correlate with endoscopic or histological disease activity. The aim of this prospective study is to evaluate the role of rectal bleeding and increased stool frequency as predictors for endoscopic and mucosal activity in patients with UC. Methods A single-center prospective observational study was conducted from July 2012 to July 2020. Adult patients aged 18 or older, with a confirmed UC diagnosis in clinical remission for at least 3 months, presenting to the endoscopy unit for disease activity evaluation or surveillance, were included. The partial Mayo score assessed rectal bleeding and stool frequency, considering scores of zero for each as clinical remission. Active endoscopic findings were defined by an endoscopic Mayo score > 1, and active histology was assessed using the Geboes score (active disease defined as Geboes score ≥ 3.1) from rectal biopsies. Logistic regression analysis and generalized estimated equation (GEE) were employed to evaluate the predictive impact of rectal bleeding and stool frequency at different time points on endoscopic and histologic disease activity at 12 months. Results The study enrolled 253 patients and the analysis revealed a significant association between rectal bleeding and stool frequency scores with 12-month endoscopic and histologic activity at different time points. Rectal bleeding at 9 months (OR: 7.64, 95% CI: 1.43 - 40.90, p = 0.0175) and 12 months (OR: 19.89, 95% CI: 3.98 - 99.52, p = 0.0003) showed a significant association with active endoscopic findings at 12 month in the multivariate analysis. At 12 months, the multivariate model of rectal bleeding revealed a significant association with active histology, with OR of 11.87 (95% CI: 1.26-112.03, p = 0.0307). On the other hand, stool frequency at 12 months exhibited significant associations with the 12 months endoscopic and histologic activity with OR of 7.31 (95% CI: 2.38 - 22.49, p = 0.0005) and OR of 13.02 (95% CI: 1.60-105.74, p = 0.0163), respectively. Conclusion Rectal bleeding and stool frequency scores are useful tools to predict endoscopic and histological activity in UC patients.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".