Can laboratory HIV and infectious syphilis data inform future pre-exposure prophylaxis use in women in Ontario, Canada?
Bibliographic record
Abstract
OBJECTIVES: Infectious syphilis has been proposed as an indication for HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) in women. We explored how many women experienced HIV seroconversion after being diagnosed with syphilis in Ontario between 20 April 2010 and 31 December 2021. METHODS: Through deterministic linkage of laboratory data at the Public Health Ontario laboratory, which conducts the vast majority of syphilis and HIV testing in Ontario, we quantified the number of females with positive syphilis diagnoses who subsequently exhibited HIV seroconversion between April 2010 and December 2021. New HIV cases were identified by diagnostic serology or HIV viral load test result of ≥20 copies/mL at least 60 days after the positive syphilis test. We report aggregate numbers of women with new laboratory evidence of HIV infection after their first positive syphilis test. RESULTS: Among 7957 women with positive syphilis tests during the study period, 6554 (82.4%) had linkable HIV serology tests and 133 (1.7%) ever tested HIV positive. With further linkage to viral load data, the number of women who ever had laboratory evidence of HIV infection increased to 184 (2.3%). However, when restricting to women whose first positive HIV test or HIV viral load occurred after their first positive syphilis test, this number decreased to 34 (0.4%). The median (IQR) time between the positive syphilis test and the first laboratory evidence of HIV was 551 (IQR=226-1159) days. CONCLUSION: Although it is clinically appropriate to recommend HIV PrEP to women with syphilis, Ontario surveillance data suggest that the population-level impact of this strategy on the HIV epidemic in Ontario would have been modest during this 11-year period. Future studies should explore additional ways of prioritising women for PrEP.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".