Celerity of Ice Breakup Front in the Regulated Peace River, Canada, and Implications for the Recharge of the Peace–Athabasca Delta
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Timely release of flow from upstream hydropower generation facilities on the Peace River can enhance potential ice-jam flooding near the drying Peace–Athabasca Delta (PAD), a Ramsar wetland of international importance and homeland to Indigenous Peoples. An important consideration in deciding whether and when to commence a release is the celerity of the breakup front as it advances along the Peace River. Relevant historical data for a key stretch of the river are analyzed to determine average celerities, which can vary by an order of magnitude from year to year. Seven breakup events are identified that might have been candidates for a release, and the predictability of associated celerities is explored in terms of antecedent hydroclimatic variables, including cumulative winter snowfall, snow water equivalent on 1 April, ice cover thickness, coldness of the winter, and freezeup level. It is shown that celerity can be predicted to within a factor of two or less, with the freezeup level giving the best results. Three of the seven “promising” events culminated in PAD floods and were associated with the three highest celerities. The empirical findings are shown to generally align with physical understanding of breakup driving and resisting factors.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it