Abstract TMP108: External Validation of the SI <sub>2</sub> NCAL <sub>2</sub> C Score for Mortality Following Cerebral Venous Thrombosis
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Background: Prognostication following cerebral venous thrombosis (CVT) remains challenging. Mortality is an uncommon yet catastrophic outcome after CVT. We sought to externally validate the SI 2 NCAL 2 C score for mortality in an international cohort. Methods: The SI 2 NCAL 2 C score was developed from the International CVT Consortium Registry to predict mortality by 30 days and one year using the factors: female- s ex-specific risk factors, i ntracerebral hemorrhage, CNS i nfection, n eurological focal deficits, c oma, a ge, hemoglobin l evel, glucose l evel, and c ancer. ACTION-CVT was an international retrospective study that enrolled consecutive patients with CVT across 27 centers. Model performance was evaluated using the area under the curve (AUC) of the time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curve and calibration plots. Missing data were imputed using the additive regression and predictive mean matching methods. Bootstrapping was performed with 1000 iterations. Results: After exclusion of one site which contributed data to the derivation cohort, 950 of 1,025 patients enrolled in ACTION-CVT were analyzed. Compared to the derivation cohort, the ACTION-CVT cohort was older (median 44 vs 40 years), less female (63.4% vs 69.8%), and with milder clinical presentation (focal deficits 38.6% vs 57.1%; seizures 22.6% vs 36.7%). Mortality was 2.5% by 30 days and 6.0% by one year. The SI 2 NCAL 2 C score achieved an AUC of 0.716 [95% CI 0.603-0.823] for mortality by 30 days and 0.820 [0.761-0.878] for mortality by one year. Calibration plots demonstrated an overestimation of predicted risk among patients with low observed mortality, concordant with score derivation (Fig 1, A-D). Conclusions: The SI 2 NCAL 2 C score had acceptable performance in an international validation cohort despite differences in baseline characteristics between cohorts. The SI 2 NCAL 2 C score warrants additional validation studies in diverse populations and clinical implementation studies.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.014 | 0.038 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".