Abstract WP248: Developing and Validating Post-Treatment HERMES Score to Predict Outcome From Anterior Circulation Large Vessel Occlusion Stroke: A Meta-Analysis of Individual Data From 7 Randomized Clinical Trials
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Introduction: Clinicians need simple and highly predictive prognostic scores to assist practical decision-making and family discussion. We aimed to develop and validate a simple prediction score applied at 24 hours to assist prognostication in patients with anterior circulation ischemic stroke due to large vessel occlusion. Methods: Using the HERMES collaboration dataset (n = 1764), patients in the endovascular therapy (EVT) arm were divided randomly into a derivation cohort (n = 430) and a validation cohort (n = 441). From a set of candidate predictors, forward selection using c-statistics was employed to select a model which was both parsimonious and highly predictive for modified Rankin Scale (mRS) ≤2 at 90 days. The score was validated in both the EVT validation cohort and in the control arm (n = 893) for mRS ≤2 and ≤3. Results: In the derivation cohort, two significant predictors of mRS ≤2 (National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale [NIHSS] score at 24 h and age [β-coefficient 0.34 and 0.06]) were selected. Incorporating other variables did not much improve model performance. Among models with different weights, we derived the HERMES score: age (years)/10 + NIHSS score at 24 h, based on model performance and simplicity. The HERMES score was highly predictive for mRS ≤2 in the derivation cohort, validation cohort-EVT, and control arm (c-statistics 0.907, 0.914, and 0.909, respectively). Evaluation of the score against mRS ≤3 as an alternative outcome yielded similar results (c-statistics 0.911, 0.903, and 0.885). Among 435 subjects (24.7%) with HERMES score ≥25, the observed probability was 3.1-3.4% for mRS ≤2 and 9.4-16.7% for mRS ≤3 in the derivation cohort, validation cohort-EVT, and control arm (Figure). Conclusions: The HERMES score is a simple validated score to predict outcomes in patients with anterior circulation large vessel occlusion ischemic stroke regardless of intervention. HERMES score should be helpful in prognostic discussion with families on day two.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.043 | 0.055 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.003 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.008 | 0.031 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.003 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.004 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".