Evaluation of ATN <sub>PD</sub> Framework and Biofluid Markers to Predict Cognitive Decline in Early Parkinson Disease
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Background and ObjectivesIn Parkinson disease (PD), Alzheimer disease (AD) copathology is common and clinically relevant. However, the longitudinal progression of AD CSF biomarkers—β-amyloid 1-42 (Aβ42), phosphorylated tau 181 (p-tau181), and total tau (t-tau)—in PD is poorly understood and may be distinct from clinical AD. Moreover, it is unclear whether CSF p-tau181 and serum neurofilament light (NfL) have added prognostic utility in PD, when combined with CSF Aβ42. First, we describe longitudinal trajectories of biofluid markers in PD. Second, we modified the AD β-amyloid/tau/neurodegeneration (ATN) framework for application in PD (ATNPD) using CSF Aβ42 (A), p-tau181 (T), and serum NfL (N) and tested ATNPD prediction of longitudinal cognitive decline in PD. MethodsParticipants were selected from the Parkinson's Progression Markers Initiative cohort, clinically diagnosed with sporadic PD or as controls, and followed up annually for 5 years. Linear mixed-effects models (LMEMs) tested the interaction of diagnosis with longitudinal trajectories of analytes (log transformed, false discovery rate [FDR] corrected). In patients with PD, LMEMs tested how baseline ATNPD status (AD [A+T+N±] vs not) predicted clinical outcomes, including Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA; rank transformed, FDR corrected). ResultsParticipants were 364 patients with PD and 168 controls, with comparable baseline mean (±SD) age (patients with PD = 62 ± 10 years; controls = 61 ± 11 years]; Mann-Whitney Wilcoxon: p = 0.4) and sex distribution (patients with PD = 231 male individuals [63%]; controls = 107 male individuals [64%]; χ2: p = 1). Patients with PD had overall lower CSF p-tau181 (β = −0.16, 95% CI −0.23 to −0.092, p = 2.2e-05) and t-tau than controls (β = −0.13, 95% CI −0.19 to −0.065, p = 4e-04), but not Aβ42 (p = 0.061) or NfL (p = 0.32). Over time, patients with PD had greater increases in serum NfL than controls (β = 0.035, 95% CI 0.022 to 0.048, p = 9.8e-07); slopes of patients with PD did not differ from those of controls for CSF Aβ42 (p = 0.18), p-tau181 (p = 1), or t-tau (p = 0.96). Using ATNPD, PD classified as A+T+N± (n = 32; 9%) had worse cognitive decline on global MoCA (β = −73, 95% CI −110 to −37, p = 0.00077) than all other ATNPD statuses including A+ alone (A+T-N-; n = 75; 21%). DiscussionIn patients with early PD, CSF p-tau181 and t-tau were low compared with those in controls and did not increase over 5 years of follow-up. Our study shows that classification using modified ATNPD (incorporating CSF Aβ42, CSF p-tau181, and serum NfL) can identify biologically relevant subgroups of PD to improve prediction of cognitive decline in early PD.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".