Critical review of the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses technique: lessons for the intelligence community
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Intelligence communities regularly produce important assessments that inform policymakers. The Analysis of Competing Hypotheses technique (ACH) is one of the most widely-touted methods for improving the accuracy of those assessments. But does ACH work? This critical review identified seven articles describing six experiments testing ACH. The results indicate ACH – as a whole – has little to no overall benefit on judgment quality, and may even harm it, even though some aspects of ACH might be beneficial. We consequently discourage intelligence organizations from mandating the training or use of ACH, and we recommend greater integration of science into intelligence practices in general.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.218 | 0.608 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.004 | 0.005 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.016 | 0.010 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.007 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.005 | 0.009 |
| Open science | 0.005 | 0.003 |
| Research integrity | 0.006 | 0.007 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.004 | 0.002 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; the direct Gemma label and the distilled Codex classifier agree on what is shown here.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".