Observations of the new meteor shower from comet 46P/Wirtanen
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Context. A new meteor shower λ-Sculptorids produced by the comet 46P/Wirtanen was forecast for December 12, 2023. The predicted activity was highly uncertain, but generally considered to be low. Observations in Australia, New Zealand, and Oceania were solicited to help constrain the size distribution of meteoroids in the shower. Aims. This work aims to characterize the new meteor shower, by comparing the observed and predicted radiants and orbits, and to provide a calibration for future predictions. Methods. Global Meteor Network video cameras were used to observe the meteor shower. Multi-station observations were used to compute trajectories and orbits, while single-station observations were used to measure the flux profile. Results. A total of 23 λ-Sculptorid orbits have been measured. The shower peaked at a zenithal hourly rate (ZHR) of 0.65−0.20+0.24 meteors per hour at λ⊙ = 259.988° ±0.042°. Due to the low in-atmosphere speed of 15 km s−1, the mean mass of observed meteoroids was 0.5 g (∼10 mm diameter), an order of magnitude higher than predicted. The dynamical simulations of the meteoroid stream can only produce such large meteoroids arriving at Earth in 2023 with correct radiants when a very low meteoroid density of ∼100 kg m−3 is assumed. However, this assumption cannot reproduce the activity profile. It may be reproduced by considering higher density meteoroids in a larger ecliptic plane-crossing time window (ΔT = 20 days) and trails ejected prior to 1908, but then the observed radiant structure is not reproduced.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".