HEAL Africa score to predict failure of surgical repair of obstetric urethro-vaginal fistula in the Democratic Republic of the Congo
Bibliographic record
Abstract
INTRODUCTION: Obstetric fistula (OF) repair surgery aims to restore the anatomical and functional integrity of the urinary tract, allowing affected women to regain their dignity and quality of life. However, in some cases, this surgical repair may fail. The objective of this study was to develop a predictive score to identify factors associated with the failure of surgical repair of obstetric urethro-vaginal fistula (FSROUVF) in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). METHODS: This is an analytical cross-sectional study of 358 patients with obstetric urethro-vaginal fistula (OUVF) who received surgical repair. We conducted bivariate and multivariate analyses. Score discrimination was assessed using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, C-index, and score calibration according to the Hosmer-Lemeshow test. RESULTS: Surgical repair of OUVF failed in 24.86% of cases (89/358). After logistic modelling, 6 criteria predicted FSROUVF: the use of intravaginal indigenous products (AOR = 3.59; 95% CI: 1.51-8.53), the presence of fibrosis (AOR = 6.37; 95% CI: 1.70-23.82), the presence of 2 or more fistulas in the same patient (AOR = 7.03; 95% CI: 3.14-15.72), the total urethral damage (AOR = 3.29; 95% CI: 1.36-7.95), the fistula size > 3 cm (AOR = 5.65; 95% CI: 2.12-15.01), and the postoperative infection (AOR = 351.10; 95% CI: 51.15-2409.81). A score of 0 to 14 was obtained, with a value ≤5 points indicating a low risk of FSROUVF, a value between 6 and 8 indicating a moderate risk, and a value ≥9 points corresponding to a high risk of FSROUVF. The area under the ROC curve of the score is 0.938 with a sensitivity of 60.67%, a specificity of 96.28%, a positive predictive value of 84.38%, and a negative predictive value of 88.10%. CONCLUSION: We report a FSROUVF rate in the DRC approaching a quarter of operative patients. Predictors of failure included fibrosis, presence of 2 or more fistulas, total urethral involvement, fistula size greater than 3 cm, postoperative infection, and use of intravaginal indigenous products. These factors are constitutive of the HEAL Africa score, which once validated, may have value in pre-operative counselling of patients. This study could be valuable for policy and strategies to address the problem of OUVF in the DRC and in resource limited settings more generally.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".