Trends in Twin Births and Survival in Bangladesh: An Analysis of Half a Century of Evidence
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This study assessed the trends in twin births and their survival in Bangladesh by analyzing over a quarter million live births during 1970-2018, pooled from all eight rounds of the Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey. In these five decades, the twinning rate increased by 1.5 times, from 5.8 to 8.6 twins per 1000 maternities. The decadal twinning rates varied across maternal age, parity, body mass index, household wealth index, and geographic region. The gap in decadal neonatal, infant, and under-five cumulative survival probability between singleton and multiple births was found to be closing, using Kaplan-Meier curves. Child mortality decreased by 80% and 60% in singleton and multiple births respectively. However, the absolute size of child mortality in multiple births remained six times higher than in singletons and was concentrated in the neonatal period. The share of multiple births surged in all types of child mortality. We predict a further and faster rise in multiple births in the coming decades in the face of upward trends in maternal age overlapping with higher parities, education, career prospects, contraceptive use, and the future demand-supply of assisted reproductive technology. A particular focus on the improvement of perinatal and neonatal care with wider availability is warranted. Otherwise, increased multiple births might raise child mortality and create public health challenges.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".