Impact and cost-effectiveness analyses of vaccination for prevention of respiratory syncytial virus disease among older adults in Ontario: A Canadian Immunization Research Network (CIRN) study
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Two prefusion F protein-based vaccines, Arexvy and Abrysvo, have been approved by Health Canada for protecting older adults against respiratory syncytial virus (RSV)-associated lower respiratory tract disease. We estimated the health benefits and cost-effectiveness of these vaccines under a publicly funded single-dose vaccination program in Ontario that targets residents of long-term care homes (LTCHs). Additionally, we evaluated an extended program that broadens vaccination to include community-dwelling older adults. METHODS: A discrete-event simulation model was parameterised with the burden of RSV disease including outpatient care, hospitalisation, and death among adults aged 60 years or older in Ontario, Canada. Accounting for direct and indirect costs (in 2023 Canadian dollars) associated with RSV-related outcomes, we calculated the net monetary benefit using quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained, and determined the range of price-per-dose (PPD) for vaccination programs to be cost-effective from both healthcare and societal perspectives over two RSV seasons. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was calculated to estimate the additional costs required to gain one QALY. RESULTS: Using a willingness-to-pay of $50,000 per QALY gained, we found that vaccinating 90% of residents in LTCHs with Arexvy would be cost-effective from a societal perspective for a PPD up to $163, producing a mean ICER value of $49,984 (95% CI: $47,539 to $52,704) per QALY gained with a two-year budget impact of $463,468 per 100,000 older adults. The reduction of hospitalizations was estimated at 7.0% compared to the no-vaccination scenario. Extending the program to include community-dwelling older adults with a 74% coverage akin to influenza vaccination, Arexvy remains cost-effective for a PPD up to $139, with a mean ICER value of $49,698 (95% CI: 48,022 to 51,388) per QALY gained and a two-year budget impact of $8.63 million. Compared to the no-vaccination scenario, the extended program resulted in a 57.3% reduction in RSV-related hospitalisations. CONCLUSIONS: Vaccinating residents of LTCHs against RSV disease would be cost-effective depending on PPD; extending the program to community-dwelling older adults would provide substantial health benefits, averting significant direct healthcare costs and productivity losses.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.006 | 0.013 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.005 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".