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Record W4392033623 · doi:10.32920/25266733

Predicting U.S. Supreme Court Case Outcomes

2024· preprint· en· W4392033623 on OpenAlexaff
Ibrahim Mohamed

Bibliographic record

Venuenot available
Typepreprint
Languageen
FieldSocial Sciences
TopicArtificial Intelligence in Law
Canadian institutionsToronto Metropolitan University
Fundersnot available
KeywordsSupreme courtComputer scienceOutcome (game theory)Affect (linguistics)Artificial intelligenceMachine learningTraining setTraining (meteorology)EconometricsOperations researchEconomicsLawPolitical sciencePsychologyEngineeringMicroeconomics

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Traditional machine learning wisdom requires that we use as much business data as possible when training models. The patterns and insights obtained from that data can then be used to drive business decisions. Unfortunately, not every industry has the dataset or expertise to apply the latest and greatest techniques. This paper attempts to quantify the effect that a sound and specialized methodology can have on the performance of a modest model. This paper will examine several experiments performed to try and reduce the resources required, dataset size, data preparation, model complexity, and time to train. Once we’ve got a bare bones model, what affect might changing the data preparation or training strategy have on the overall performance? This paper explores 2 novel experiments/approaches to training/testing a model to predict the outcome of U.S. Supreme Court Case Decisions. This paper shows that by grouping cases by issue area, performance can be improved by an average of nearly 4%.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame machine prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.003
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.011
Version: metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061cValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Simulation or modeling · Consensus signal: none
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.030
Threshold uncertainty score0.059

Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0030.011
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0010.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.001
Bibliometrics0.0020.002
Science and technology studies0.0010.000
Scholarly communication0.0020.001
Open science0.0010.001
Research integrity0.0010.002
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0030.002

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.103
GPT teacher head0.410
Teacher spread0.307 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designSimulation or modeling
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations0
Published2024
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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