PalVol v1: a proxy-based semi-stochastic ensemble reconstruction of volcanic stratospheric sulfur injection for the last glacial cycle (140 000–50 BP)
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract. Perturbations in stratospheric aerosol due to explosive volcanic eruptions are a primary contributor to natural climate variability. Observations of stratospheric aerosol are available for the past decades, and information from ice cores has been used to derive estimates of stratospheric sulfur injections and aerosol optical depth over the Holocene (approximately 10 000 BP to present) and into the last glacial period, extending back to 60 000 BP. Tephra records of past volcanism, compared to ice cores, are less complete but extend much further into the past. To support model studies of the potential impacts of explosive volcanism on climate variability across timescales, we present here an ensemble reconstruction of volcanic stratospheric sulfur injection (VSSI) over the last 140 000 years that is based primarily on terrestrial and marine tephra records. VSSI values are computed as a simple function of eruption magnitude based on VSSI estimates from ice cores and satellite observations for identified eruptions. To correct for the incompleteness of the tephra record, we include stochastically generated synthetic eruptions assuming a constant background eruption frequency from the ice core Holocene record. While the reconstruction often differs from ice core estimates for specific eruptions due to uncertainties in the data used and reconstruction method, it shows good agreement with an ice-core-based VSSI reconstruction in terms of millennial-scale cumulative VSSI variations over the Holocene. The PalVol reconstruction provides a new basis to test the contributions of forced vs. unforced natural variability to the spectrum of climate and the mechanisms leading to abrupt transitions in the palaeoclimate record with low- to high-complexity climate models. The PalVol volcanic forcing reconstruction is available at https://doi.org/10.26050/WDCC/PalVolv1 (Toohey and Schindlbeck-Belo, 2023).
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".