Ionospheric Scintillation Nowcasting and Forecasting for Civil Aviation
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) has set up a space weather service for monitoring and raising alerts in case of moderate or severe potential impact on aviation, and covering three domains: GNSS, Radiation and HF Communications. This service is operational since November 2019 and is working in a bi-weekly rotation of four global centers: SWPC (US Space Weather Prediction Center), PECASUS (consortium of 9 European States), CRC (China-Russia Consortium) and ACFJ (Australia-Canada-France-Japan). CLS (Collecte Localisation Satellites), a member of ACFJ, is a subsidiary of the French Space Agency and responsible for delivering near real-time ionospheric scintillation maps. The input data is based on a worldwide network of GNSS receivers, composed of various regional and global networks. The work presented here summarizes the adopted algorithms and pre-processing tasks leading to generate the nowcast maps. The results of a validation work are shown (comparison of indices from geodetic receivers and scintillation monitors) as well as a focus on severe events and their effect on aviation. Finally, taking advantage of a 4-years long data base, the status of a forecasting scintillation model is presented, taking care of separating the EPBs (Equatorial Plasma Bubbles) and geomagnetic storms origins.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".