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Record W4392652551 · doi:10.5194/egusphere-egu24-19540

Uncertainty estimation of conductive thin plates parameters through a Bayesian approach

2024· preprint· en· W4392652551 on OpenAlexaffabout
Alessandro Vinciguerra, Guy Marquis, Jean‐François Girard, Grant Harrison, Elodie Williard

Bibliographic record

Venuenot available
Typepreprint
Languageen
FieldDecision Sciences
TopicProbabilistic and Robust Engineering Design
Canadian institutionsiNano Medical (Canada)
Fundersnot available
KeywordsBayesian probabilityEstimationBayes estimatorElectrical conductorComputer scienceArtificial intelligenceMathematicsEconometricsStatisticsMaterials scienceEngineeringComposite material

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

The uranium deposits of the Athabasca basin (Canada) represent one of the world’s highest-grade uranium resources. They are unconformity-related type at the base of relatively flat-lying sequences, where faults acted as circulation paths for hydrothermal fluids. The fault zones often contain graphitic mineralization and hence represent a valuable exploration guide of small lateral extension but detectable by electromagnetic (EM) surveys. Time-domain EM (TEM) is the method of choice for uranium exploration in the Athabasca, and taking into account the frequencies involved we can approximate the graphitization along the fault as a conductive thin plate.To better determine the geometry of the deposit, it might be crucial to recover the subsurface resistivity and the geometric parameters of the plate (position, dip, depth, azimuth etc.). Moreover, the assessment of the uncertainty associated to the parameters can help to evaluate the reliability of geological models and to guide the subsequent drilling activities.A quantitative approach consists of employing Bayesian inversion algorithms, which allows to exploit the prior information available. Indeed, Bayesian inversion algorithms aim to solve the inverse problem statistically returning the posterior probability density function (ppdf). In particular, they are based on the Bayes theorem, which relates the prior information (e.g. from geological and petrophysical models) with the likelihood function to assess the posterior probability density function and thus the uncertainty. We implement the Differential Evolution Markov Chain algorithm (DEMC), a multi-chain approach that integrates the Metropolis selection rule with population evolution to sample the ppdf. The chains run in parallel and each current model is updated drawing two other chains and exploiting the models at the previous iteration. After an initial stage of burn-in, the algorithm reaches the stationary regime where the chains start sampling the ppdf resulting at the end in an ensemble of models. From these models the moments of first and second order (mean and variance) are computed obtaining the uncertainty of the inverse problem solution. As forward operator we employ the LEROI forward code developed by CSIRO (AMIRA), which computes the TEM response of one or more conductive 3D thin plates embedded in a horizontally layered earth.In this work we propose the DEMC inversion of TEM data as a tool to assess thin plates parameters and uncertainty in the context of uranium exploration. 

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.002
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.003
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Simulation or modeling · Consensus signal: Simulation or modeling
GenreCandidate signal: Methods · Consensus signal: none
Teacher disagreement score0.607
Threshold uncertainty score0.975

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0020.003
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0010.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.001
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0010.001
Research integrity0.0000.001
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0000.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.132
GPT teacher head0.359
Teacher spread0.227 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designSimulation or modeling
Domainnot available
GenreMethods

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations0
Published2024
Admission routes2
Has abstractyes

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