Western Montana Snow Squall Climatology and Synoptic Patterns, 2000–2020
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The rapid onset of whiteout conditions, from strong winds, blowing snow, and heavy snow, associated with snow squalls often results in hazardous travel conditions. Snow squalls bring pronounced impacts to the transportation sector, leading to accidents, fatalities, and significant travel delays. Given these impacts, historical frequencies, and the synoptic environments associated with snow squalls in western Montana were examined to develop forecast aides, primarily through synoptic pattern recognition, for meteorologists to identify and communicate snow squalls. A 20-yr climatology was constructed to identify events characterized by wind gusts ≥26 kt (30 mph) and visibility ≤0.8 km (0.5 mi). 74 snow squall events were identified from 2000 through 2020 across three ASOS sites: Missoula (KMSO), Kalispell (KGPI), and Butte (KBTM). The median duration of heavy (moderate) snow during snow squalls was 26 (34) min. A composite study utilizing these events was conducted using the NCEP North American Regional Reanalysis. The composite study along with surface observations, revealed three distinct snow squall patterns and types: orographic snow bands, Pacific cold fronts, and Canadian arctic fronts.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".