Accurate hindcasting of explosive eruptions at Whakaari, New Zealand
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Phreatic eruptions are small, sudden events, commonly with few precursory signals. They are driven by interactions between magmatic and hydrothermal processes at shallow levels beneath the surface. Here we show that a sequence of banded tremor events, which occurred several weeks before the 9 December 2019 eruption of Whakaari (White Island), New Zealand, can be used to hindcast this eruption. The banded tremor sequence reveals a progressively decreasing time interval between tremor bands. Extrapolating the tremor bands to a time interval of zero provides an accurate estimate, at least one week prior to the eruption, to within 10.2 hours of when the eruption would occur, with a 2.8-day range between 95 % confidence intervals. A similar set of tremor signals appeared before the 27 April 2016 eruption, and these signals provide a very accurate hindcast of this eruption to within 2.61 hours, with a 2.2-day range between 95 % confidence intervals. Our analysis indicates that this potential forecasting approach may prove useful for successfully and accurately forecasting future eruptions at Whakaari. The approach also may be applicable to other volcanoes similar to Whakaari which experience sudden phreatic and phreatomagmatic eruptions.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.004 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; both teacher heads agree on what is shown here.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".