Linking Clicks to Bricks: Understanding the Effects of Email Advertising on Multichannel Sales
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Businesses have widely used email ads to directly send promotional information to consumers. Whereas email ads serve as a convenient tool that allows firms to target consumers online, there is little evidence of their multichannel impact on consumer spending in both online and brick-and-mortar stores. In this paper, we utilize a unique high-dimensional data set from one of the world’s largest office supplies retailers to link each consumer’s online behaviors to item-level purchase records in physical stores. We employ a doubly robust estimator that incorporates nonparametric machine learning methods for causal estimation of observational data. Our results show that email ads significantly increase the retailer’s sales across different channels. We also investigate the effects of email ads on diverse consumer behaviors along the purchase funnel and find that increased sales result from increased purchase probability and a wider variety of products purchased by consumers. Further, we examine several moderating factors, such as product types and consumer segments, that influence the multichannel effects of email advertising. Our study provides empirical evidence for the economic impact of email ads on consumer behavior across different channels and the underlying mechanisms thereof, offering direct implications for multichannel retailers seeking to improve their digital marketing strategies.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.022 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.006 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".