Adaptation Attitudes Are Guided by “Lived Experience” Rather than Electoral Interests: Evidence from a Survey Experiment in Bangladesh
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
After decades of presuming that climate adaptation is a private good benefitting only those receiving resources to reduce individual climate risks, respondents in a survey experiment among the climate-vulnerable in Bangladesh chose less-particularistic adaptation projects than “electoral connection” disaster relief theories predict and more “short-sighted” projects than international diplomats anticipate. This article reports on the experiment, which asked a representative national sample of Bangladeshis whether they favor spending funds on short-term particularistic solutions (disaster relief stockpiles), medium-term inclusionary and non-excludable solutions (ocean embankments), or long-term, public goods solutions (the development of flood-resistant rice seeds). More respondents chose “middle ground” embankment spending, and a statistically significant change in respondent propensities was tied to their lived experience with climate vulnerability rather than electoral incentives. The logic of their choices contradicts existing explanations, implying that a reconsideration of vulnerable community preferences, and how to address them, may be needed.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it