Automated mitotic spindle hotspot counts are highly associated with clinical outcomes in systemically untreated early-stage triple-negative breast cancer
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Operable triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) has a higher risk of recurrence and death compared to other subtypes. Tumor size and nodal status are the primary clinical factors used to guide systemic treatment, while biomarkers of proliferation have not demonstrated value. Recent studies suggest that subsets of TNBC have a favorable prognosis, even without systemic therapy. We evaluated the association of fully automated mitotic spindle hotspot (AMSH) counts with recurrence-free (RFS) and overall survival (OS) in two separate cohorts of patients with early-stage TNBC who did not receive systemic therapy. AMSH counts were obtained from areas with the highest mitotic density in digitized whole slide images processed with a convolutional neural network trained to detect mitoses. In 140 patients from the Mayo Clinic TNBC cohort, AMSH counts were significantly associated with RFS and OS in a multivariable model controlling for nodal status, tumor size, and tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes (TILs) (p < 0.0001). For every 10-point increase in AMSH counts, there was a 16% increase in the risk of an RFS event (HR 1.16, 95% CI 1.08-1.25), and a 7% increase in the risk of death (HR 1.07, 95% CI 1.00-1.14). We corroborated these findings in a separate cohort of systemically untreated TNBC patients from Radboud UMC in the Netherlands. Our findings suggest that AMSH counts offer valuable prognostic information in patients with early-stage TNBC who did not receive systemic therapy, independent of tumor size, nodal status, and TILs. If further validated, AMSH counts could help inform future systemic therapy de-escalation strategies.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it