Predicting depression risk in early adolescence via multimodal brain imaging
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Depression is an incapacitating psychiatric disorder with increased risk through adolescence. Among other factors, children with family history of depression have significantly higher risk of developing depression. Early identification of pre-adolescent children who are at risk of depression is crucial for early intervention and prevention. In this study, we used a large longitudinal sample from the Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development (ABCD) Study (2658 participants after imaging quality control, between 9-10 years at baseline), we applied advanced machine learning methods to predict depression risk at the two-year follow-up from the baseline assessment, using a set of comprehensive multimodal neuroimaging features derived from structural MRI, diffusion tensor imaging, and task and rest functional MRI. Prediction performance underwent a rigorous cross-validation method of leave-one-site-out. Our results demonstrate that all brain features had prediction scores significantly better than expected by chance, with brain features from rest-fMRI showing the best classification performance in the high-risk group of participants with parental history of depression (N = 625). Specifically, rest-fMRI features, which came from functional connectomes, showed significantly better classification performance than other brain features. This finding highlights the key role of the interacting elements of the connectome in capturing more individual variability in psychopathology compared to measures of single brain regions. Our study contributes to the effort of identifying biological risks of depression in early adolescence in population-based samples.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.062 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".