Long-term variability in debris transiting white dwarfs
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Combining archival photometric observations from multiple large-area surveys spanning the past 17 years, we detect long-term variability in the light curves of ZTFJ032833.52-121945.27 (ZTFJ0328-1219), ZTFJ092311.41+423634.16 (ZTFJ0923+4236) and WD1145+017, all known to exhibit transits from planetary debris. ZTFJ0328-1219 showed an overall fading in brightness from 2011 through to 2015, with a maximum dimming of ~0.3 mag, and still remains ~0.1 mag fainter compared to 2006. We complement the analysis of the long-term behaviour of these systems with high-speed photometry. In the case of ZTFJ0923+4236 and WD1145+017, the time-series photometry exhibits vast variations in the level of transit activity, both in terms of numbers of transits, as well as their shapes and depths, and these variations correlate with the overall brightness of the systems. Inspecting the current known sample of white dwarfs with transiting debris, we estimate that similar photometric signatures may be detectable in one in a few hundred of all white dwarfs. Accounting for the highly aligned geometry required to detect transits, our estimates imply that a substantial fraction of all white dwarfs exhibiting photospheric metal pollution from accreted debris host close-in planetesimals that are currently undergoing disintegration.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".