MétaCan
Menu
Back to cohort

BUSINESS CYCLES IN EUROPEAN REGIONS

2024· article· en· W4394862026 on OpenAlexaboutno aff
Marcin Spychała, Joanna Spychała

Bibliographic record

VenueScientific Papers of Silesian University of Technology Organization and Management Series · 2024
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldEconomics, Econometrics and Finance
TopicGlobal Financial Crisis and Policies
Canadian institutionsnot available
Fundersnot available
KeywordsBusiness cycleEuropean unionQuarter (Canadian coin)Eu countriesEconomic indicatorGross domestic productEconomicsEconometricsEconomyMacroeconomicsInternational tradeGeography

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Purpose:The main purpose of the considerations is to present and analyze the most important morphological features of cyclical fluctuations for the 27 European Union countries as a whole (aggregated indicator -EU27) and for individual EU countries in the period from the first quarter of 2000 to the fourth quarter of 2022 based on the gross domestic product dynamics indicator.On the basis of the constructed indicators, which made it possible to isolate business cycle fluctuations, the degree of synchronization of the cycles of individual EU regions with the EU27 reference cycle was assessed.Design/methodology/approach: The methodological foundations of the research process and the empirical assessment of regional business cycles in the EU were preceded by theoretical analyzes regarding the concept, essence and morphological features of regional business cycle fluctuations.The study is based on 92 observations for each studied region.Dynamic indicators were built reflecting changes in general economic activity, i.e. quarterly time series of GDP.The obtained series were decomposed and deseasonalized.Upper and lower turning points were identified, resulting in phases of growth and slump in a given economy.This made it possible to present full business cycles and then assess them (in particular, determine the degree of synchronization between individual countries and the reference cycle).Findings: By assessing the course of fluctuations in business cycles of the entire economy of the European Union as a whole and fluctuations in business cycles of individual regions making up the EU in the period from the first quarter of 2000 to the fourth quarter of 2022, it can be concluded that this progression is not uniform.Divergences in business cycles in the European Union are an important feature of the data.This differentiation depends largely on the specific development of each region.Originality/value: The course of cyclical fluctuations was determined for all countries that are members of the European Union, as well as in individual EU regions.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.000
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.000
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Theoretical or conceptual · Consensus signal: none
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.958
Threshold uncertainty score0.271

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0010.002
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0000.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0000.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.007
GPT teacher head0.163
Teacher spread0.156 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designTheoretical or conceptual
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations3
Published2024
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

Explore more

Same venueScientific Papers of Silesian University of Technology Organization and Management SeriesSame topicGlobal Financial Crisis and PoliciesFrench-language works237,207