Reducing non-communicable diseases among Palestinian populations in Gaza: A participatory comparative and cost-effectiveness modeling assessment
Bibliographic record
Abstract
We sought to assess the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of potential new public health and healthcare NCD risk reduction efforts among Palestinians in Gaza. We created a microsimulation model using: (i) a cross-sectional household survey of NCD risk factors among 4,576 Palestinian adults aged ≥40 years old in Gaza; (ii) a modified Delphi process among local public health experts to identify potentially feasible new interventions; and (iii) reviews of intervention cost and effectiveness, modified to the Gazan and refugee contexts. The survey revealed 28.6% tobacco smoking, a 40.4% prevalence of hypertension diagnosis (with a 95.6% medication treatment rate), a 25.6% prevalence of diabetes diagnosis (with 95.3% on treatment), a 21.9% prevalence of dyslipidemia (with 79.6% on a statin), and a 9.8% prevalence of asthma or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (without known treatment). A calibrated model estimated a loss of 9,516 DALYs per 10,000 population over the 10-year policy horizon. The interventions having an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) less than three times the GDP per capita of Palestine per DALY averted (<$10,992 per DALY averted)(<$10,992 per DALY averted) included bans on tobacco smoking in indoor and public places [$34 per incremental DALY averted (95% CI: $17, $50)], treatment of asthma using low dose inhaled beclometasone and short-acting beta-agonists [$140 per DALY averted (95% CI: $77, $207)], treatment of breast cancer stages I and II [$730 per DALY averted (95% CI: $372, $1,100)], implementing a mass media campaign for healthier nutrition [$737 per DALY averted (95% CI: $403, $1,100)], treatment of colorectal cancer stages I and II [$7,657 per DALY averted (95% CI: $3,721, $11,639)], and (screening with mammography [$17,054 per DALY averted (95% CI: $8,693, $25,359)]). Despite high levels of NCD risk factors among Palestinians in Gaza, we estimated that several interventions would be expected to reduce the loss of DALYs within common cost-effectiveness thresholds.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".