Evaluating ChatGPT-4’s Accuracy in Identifying Final Diagnoses Within Differential Diagnoses Compared With Those of Physicians: Experimental Study for Diagnostic Cases
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: The potential of artificial intelligence (AI) chatbots, particularly ChatGPT with GPT-4 (OpenAI), in assisting with medical diagnosis is an emerging research area. However, it is not yet clear how well AI chatbots can evaluate whether the final diagnosis is included in differential diagnosis lists. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to assess the capability of GPT-4 in identifying the final diagnosis from differential-diagnosis lists and to compare its performance with that of physicians for case report series. METHODS: We used a database of differential-diagnosis lists from case reports in the American Journal of Case Reports, corresponding to final diagnoses. These lists were generated by 3 AI systems: GPT-4, Google Bard (currently Google Gemini), and Large Language Models by Meta AI 2 (LLaMA2). The primary outcome was focused on whether GPT-4's evaluations identified the final diagnosis within these lists. None of these AIs received additional medical training or reinforcement. For comparison, 2 independent physicians also evaluated the lists, with any inconsistencies resolved by another physician. RESULTS: The 3 AIs generated a total of 1176 differential diagnosis lists from 392 case descriptions. GPT-4's evaluations concurred with those of the physicians in 966 out of 1176 lists (82.1%). The Cohen κ coefficient was 0.63 (95% CI 0.56-0.69), indicating a fair to good agreement between GPT-4 and the physicians' evaluations. CONCLUSIONS: GPT-4 demonstrated a fair to good agreement in identifying the final diagnosis from differential-diagnosis lists, comparable to physicians for case report series. Its ability to compare differential diagnosis lists with final diagnoses suggests its potential to aid clinical decision-making support through diagnostic feedback. While GPT-4 showed a fair to good agreement for evaluation, its application in real-world scenarios and further validation in diverse clinical environments are essential to fully understand its utility in the diagnostic process.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".