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Record W4396829471 · doi:10.1101/2024.05.10.24307057

Mapping the distribution and describing the first cases from an ongoing outbreak of a New Strain of mpox in South Kivu, Eastern Democratic Republic of Congo between September 2023 to April 2024

2024· preprint· en· W4396829471 on OpenAlexaff
David F. Nieuwenhuijse, Pacifique Ndishimye, Jean Claude Udahemuka, Bilembo Kitwanda Steeven, Nzigire Barhatwira Gisèle, Jean Pierre Musabyimana, B. Daniel, Théophile Kiluba Wa Kiluba, Franklin Kumbana Mweshi, Polepole Ngabo, Theophile Tambala, Mazambi Mambo Divin, B Chance, Léandre Mutimbwa Mambo, Leonard Schuele, Justin Bengehya Mbiribindi, Gustavo Sganzerla Martinez, David J. Kelvin, Gaston Lubambo Maboko, Bas B. Oude Munnink, Trudie Lang, Frank M. Aarestrup, Christian Gortázar, Marion Koopmans, Freddy Belesi Siangoli

Bibliographic record

VenuemedRxiv · 2024
Typepreprint
Languageen
FieldImmunology and Microbiology
TopicPoxvirus research and outbreaks
Canadian institutionsDalhousie University
Fundersnot available
KeywordsOutbreakDemocracyGeographyDistribution (mathematics)Strain (injury)Political scienceCartographyVirologyPoliticsMathematicsMedicineLaw

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

ABSTRACT Background In September 2023, an outbreak of mpox was reported in the eastern part, South Kivu Province, of Democratic Republic of the Congo. This paper aims to provide a summary from several ongoing and completed studies to share initial insights into the time trend and spatial distribution, the links we have observed between level of mpox cases with population density and the presence of professional sex workers (PSW) in bars within affected heath areas of Kamituga health zone. We also seek to share our initial observations on the novel characteristics of this new and emergent strain. Methods Consenting patients admitted with mpox-like symptoms to the Kamituga hospital were recruited to an observational cohort study to understand the clinical characteristics and household perceptions and treatment seeking behaviours. We mapped the demographic and clinical characteristics of all individuals between September 2023 and April 2024. Findings 371 (suspected) mpox cases were admitted to the Kamituga hospital. There were slightly more female than male cases (192/371 [52%] versus 179/371, [48%], and cases were reported from 15 health areas. The majority of cases were reported in Mero (115/371 [31%]), followed by Kimbangu (65/371[18%]), Kabukungu (63/371[17%]), Asuku (47/371 [13%]), Soluluyu (19/371 [5,12%]), Katunga (17/371 [4,58%]), Kalingi, Poudriere (12/371 [3,23%]) respectively, and Poly Afia (7/371 [1,89%]). During this period, 4 deaths occurred and 4 out of 8 women who were pregnant had fetal loss . Three healthcare workers acquired infection when caring for patients. In depth case ascertainment showed that 88,4 % of patients reported recent visits to bars for (professional) sexual interactions as a likely source of infection. Our findings suggest that the epidemic in South Kivu is driven by transmission in a network of professional sex workers, working in bars. The continued spread of the mpox virus in Kamituga health zone and other health zones of South -Kivu points at a critical need for cross border surveillance, and the potential for rapid vaccination of sex workers as potential intervention. Interpretation These data suggest that the rapid transmission of mpox virus is related to interactions with professional sex workers (PSW) in bars within densely populated health areas. The expanding number of cases and the recent spillover to 16 other nearby health zones of South -Kivu including a health district bordering Rwanda and Burundi stresses the need for cross border surveillance. In addition, enhanced response action is needed, including vaccination health education programmes to limit further escalation and stop this outbreak.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.001
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.001
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Observational · Consensus signal: Observational
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.076
Threshold uncertainty score1.000

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0010.001
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0010.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.000
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0010.001
Research integrity0.0000.001
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0000.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.092
GPT teacher head0.294
Teacher spread0.202 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designObservational
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations24
Published2024
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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